Probabilistic Aspects of Financial Modeling
MATH5110/6010, Spring semester, 2021
Instructor: Yizao Wang
Email: yizao.wang@uc.edu
Office: French Hall 4302.
Office Hours: by appointment.
Class meeting: synchronous online lectures, Wed 3:35pm-4:30pm, two more pre-recorded lectures per week. All lectures will be available via Canvas.
Textbook
- Lecture slides updated at Canvas. See slides for recommended references for further studies if interested.
Course description
This course covers two fundamental probabilistic models in mathematical finance: the (discrete-time) binomial model and the (continuous-time) Black-Scholes model. The financial applications serve as the motivation of studying these two models mathematically, but are not the focus on this course. The two models themselves exhibit appealing properties and hence deserve further investigation from probabilistic point of view alone. Our treatment of binomial model will be self-contained, illustrating the role of martingales. For Black-Scholes model, however, we shall spend most of the time on the basics of Brownian motions (staring from random walks), stochastic calculus and very briefly stochastic differential equations (with occasional sketched proofs only). The presentation of the Black-Scholes model will be based on formal calculation only.
No prior knowledge on finance is required. The course would be helpful to students interested in stochastic modeling in general.
If you find the course materials interesting and are looking for an opportunity for capstone projects, please read here first.
Grades
- MATH6010 students: homework (50%) + midterm1 (15%) + midterm2 (15%) + final (20%) + optional project (10% bonus).
- MATH5010 students: homework (50%) + 2 $\times$ max(midterm1, midterm2) (30%) + final (20%) + optional project (10% bonus).
Letter grades: A(90%), A-(85%), B+(80%), B(75%), B-(70%), C+(65%), C(60%), C-(55%).
Tentative Schedule
There will be 7 homework sets, to be posted at Canvas. All exams are take-home.
- Week 1 (Jan 11): Review of probability. HW1
- Week 2 (Jan 18): No class on MLK, Monday (Jan 18).
Binomial model. Portfolio, path-space point of view.
- Week 3 (Jan 25): Martingale, risk-neutral probability measure, no arbitrage for binomial model. HW2
- Week 4 (Feb 1) Options pricing.
- Week 5 (Feb 8): Replicating portfolio. HW3
- Week 6 (Feb 15): Midterm1. Random walks.
- Week 7 (Feb 22):
- Week 8 (Mar 1): Brownian motion. HW4
- Week 9 (Mar 8):
- Week 10 (Mar 15): HW5
- Week 11 (Mar 22): Stochastic calculus. No class on Wed (Mar 24, reading day).
- Week 12 (Mar 29): HW6
- Week 13 (Apr 5): Midterm 2. Stochastic differential equations
- Week 14 (Apr 12): Black-Scholes model. HW7
- Week 15 (Apr 19): Class ends on Apr 21, Wed.