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As the Kosovo body count mounted during 1998, the U.S. press devoted considerably more attention to Clinton's grand jury statements about relationships with Paula Jones and Monica Lewinsky. In addition to the Independent Counsel’s impeachment investigation and GOP adversaries in Congress, Clinton was also confronted by Russia's economic collapse and difficult issues addressed on state visits to China and Africa. On his brief stop in Rwanda, Clinton publicly apologized for the U.S. failure to respond when alerted in advance to plans for genocide by Hutus that eliminated 500,000 Tutsis.
The President had gradually escalated U.S. commitments in Bosnia despite political obstacles--limited air strikes first, followed by an initial one-year deployment of peacekeepers that was renewed for an indefinite period. In keeping with the lessons of Vietnam, Lebanon, and Somalia, his advisers recommended the same model for Kosovo. In their calculus, the U.S public would support humanitarian intervention so long as young men did not return home in body bags.
The Powell Doctrine from the Gulf War offered a different model--intervention with overwhelming force when victory for vital U.S. interests appeared highly certain. Clinton's advisers had not provided a clear exit strategy. Critics in the foreign policy and military establishment objected to the U.S. maintaining Balkans protectorates for the indefinite future. Persuading the public to accept another humanitarian venture might be a tough sell.
Some internationalist Republicans, such as Robert Dole, and even the isolationist Jesse Helms, publicly advocated a firmer response to Milosevic. The Republican chair of the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations called for the U.S. to recognize Kosovo's independence and provide security assistance.29 Other foreign policy hawks grudgingly believed that the U.S. and NATO would lose credibility if Clinton failed to deliver on past threats.
By a party-line vote in December, the House of Representatives approved impeachment articles charging the President with perjury. A lame duck Democrat in the midst of an impeachment trial in the Republican controlled Senate might be tempted to "wag the dog." Skeptics viewed Clinton's 1994 military intervention in Haiti as a deliberate political diversion. "In a 'confidential' memorandum to UN Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali, the UN special representative to Haiti reported that Clinton's aides saw political advantage in an invasion that would demonstrate 'the President's decision making capability and the firmness of leadership in international political matters.'"30
Public opinion polls in January 1999 revealed concern about the President's character, but support for his official conduct and considerable distrust for the Republican Congress. One commentator had described Clinton's 1995 address to the nation justifying U.S. Peacekeepers in Bosnia as "one of the more eloquent speeches of his Presidency."31 Despite his difficult political situation, a resilient Commander in Chief might still have the capacity to initiate a U.S. led NATO air campaign followed by a peacekeeping mission.
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